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Market Size Estimation: a Tokeny case study

Combine public data and industry reports to estimate target market size and growth trends. Follow the recorded task, execution screenshots, actual files and verification notes.

By the Tokeny team · Windows · Tokeny 1.7.8 · gpt-6-sol

Prepare the inputs

Create a separate workspace in Tokeny, download and unpack the sample inputs, then select a model that supports tools. The sample uses synthetic data or the public sources named in the article.

  • assumptions.json
Download sample inputs

Send the task to Tokeny

The original task was executed in Chinese. Copying these instructions reproduces the same task; the results below include an English report.

用给定假设计算 TAM/SAM/SOM 和敏感性分析,给出公式、适用范围与需要后续采集的数据,输出 Excel。

交付文件:market.xlsx、market-sizing.md。
验收要点:
- TAM 36000000,SAM 7200000,SOM 180000 元/年
- 假设和事实清楚区分
这是使用合成演示输入或指定公开资料的真实操作案例。请先读取工作空间输入,再实际生成文件并自检。所有写入、脚本与临时服务限于当前工作空间;临时服务只监听 127.0.0.1,执行后关闭;不触达外部收件人、不发布、不付款、不更改系统设置,不调用子智能体。需要公开资料时可读取给定 URL。只启用完成任务必需的工具。另写 report.md(中文)和 report.en.md(英文),简洁、完整,包含输入、处理步骤、真实结果、检查方式和局限;失败或未验证部分如实记录,不能宣称成功。最终回复用中文列出产物、关键结果与待核实项。
排版检查:Word 主标题仅出现一次,标题为黑色且与后续正文或表格保持同页;Excel 表头和长文字不能被窄列截断,合理设置列宽、换行、行高;HTML 在 390px 视口不能整页横向溢出。报告没有固定字数要求,不要为字数反复改写。

The recorded run used an isolated demonstration workspace. Review the commands and file paths before approving operations in your own workspace.

What actually ran

The task was submitted through the Tokeny input box. An online model read the inputs and executed tools. This run covers the local sample task and its actual files. Results and checks are recorded below.

The actual Tokeny 1.7.8 session and files for Market Size Estimation. Open the image at full size.
The actual Tokeny 1.7.8 session and files for Market Size Estimation. Open the image at full size.
A preview of the actual generated file included in the download.
A preview of the actual generated file included in the download.

Results and verification

Inputs

Read assumptions.json: total population 100,000, target share 20%, reachable share 25%, paid conversion 10%, and annual price 360 CNY. The source explicitly states that all inputs are demo assumptions, not market statistics.

Processing

  1. Read and preserved the JSON inputs.
  2. Applied TAM = population × annual price; SAM = TAM × target share; SOM = SAM × reachable share × paid conversion.
  3. Created market.xlsx with formulas, cached values, formatting, and three two-way sensitivity tables.
  4. Created market-sizing.md and this report.

Actual results

TAM = 36,000,000 CNY/year; SAM = 7,200,000.0 CNY/year; SOM = 180,000.0 CNY/year.

Checks

The generation script asserted all three acceptance values. It also checked formula cells, cached values, worksheet names, column widths, and text wrapping, then reopened the output workbook successfully.

Limitations and unverified items

No external public data was used. The population, target share, reachability, conversion, and price assumptions were not validated. Excel formulas recalculate when opened in Excel; baseline cached values were also written. No browser HTML check was performed because no HTML was generated.

Download and inspect the outputs

The archive contains the files created during this run. Use these checks when adapting the example to your own data.

  • Reconcile the reported results against the downloadable sample inputs.
  • Open the generated files and check the contents relevant to your task.
  • Review the limitations and any unverified steps in the report.
market.xlsx · 11 KBmarket-sizing.md · 2 KBreport.md · 1 KBreport.en.md · 1 KB
Download actual outputs

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